2024-10-24 (10 october 2024) UN published their latest emission report
Let me summarize, it ain't happening!
Current levels of global warming are about 1.3°C
The current most optimistic case sees median (50 per cent) warming projections capped at about 1.7°C
Overshoot
Can we put it back? The carbon dioxide. Remove it?
Then surely, we can go over 1.5 and then just... go back?
Well sure. We will rely on our future us being smarter, richer, wiser and take this serious enough to dedicated a substantial part of their economy to undo the damage we have done. Also called; kicking the can down the road
Just cause it never worked before, let's just ignore the problem and hope it goes away / someone else solves it for us. Nemas problemas!
Just try Harder
This ship has sailed. The time is short, the effort required enormous. The report itself states that it would take an invsestment ramping up to almost 10% of world GDP by 2035 to have a 50/50 chance of 1.7°C
No, the decision has been made. We are roling the dice on climate change
The time for changes big enough to avoid crossing that threshold has passed
But... what if?
What if we do it, massive investment but, what if?
Well, who is going to invade Saudi Arabia?
Doesnt seem to have anything to do with it? They can alone, with their proven reserves, push us over
There is no world I can image where they would not be able to find a buyer for abover their production costs, at about $4 dollar per barrel (current prices are about $70 dollar per barrel)
No world where they would not sell it.
Are you okay paying them off for not selling their oil?
Or using military force to well... force them?
Remember, they are not the only petro state ('cough' Russia 'cough')
Not all gloom and doom
It's bad, suboptimal. But a world warmed by 1.5C is not in anyway unlivable
This is NOT armagedon, not even close. That is the problem!
You wont get to avoid the consequenses of your actions by dying, nor even systemic collapse
The world will be a worse place, resources expended on mitigating the impact of climate change instead of stoping it in the first place
The End
Shortsightedness is nothing new, and we live with many of the consequenses already. One more for the pile, if a rather large one